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Abstract Predicting how increasing intensity of human–environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint—an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density—an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs. 

The globalization of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases has placed more than half of the human population at risk. Understanding arbovirus ecology, including the role individual mosquito species play in virus transmission cycles, is critical for limiting disease. Canonical virus-vector groupings, such as Aedes - or Culex -associated flaviviruses, have historically been defined using virus detection in field-collected mosquitoes, mosquito feeding patterns, and vector competence, which quantifies the intrinsic ability of a mosquito to become infected with and transmit a virus during a subsequent blood feed. Herein, we quantitatively synthesize data from 68 laboratory-based vector competence studies of 111 mosquito-virus pairings of Australian mosquito species and viruses of public health concern to further substantiate existing canonical vector-virus groupings and quantify variation within these groupings. Our synthesis reinforces current canonical vector-virus groupings but reveals substantial variation within them. While Aedes species were generally the most competent vectors of canonical “ Aedes -associated flaviviruses” (such as dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses), there are some notable exceptions; for example, Aedes notoscriptus is an incompetent vector of dengue viruses. Culex spp. were the most competent vectors of many traditionally Culex -associated flaviviruses including West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, although some Aedes spp. are also moderately competent vectors of these viruses. Conversely, many different mosquito genera were associated with the transmission of the arthritogenic alphaviruses, Ross River, Barmah Forest, and chikungunya viruses. We also confirm that vector competence is impacted by multiple barriers to infection and transmission within the mesenteron and salivary glands of the mosquito. Although these barriers represent important bottlenecks, species that were susceptible to infection with a virus were often likely to transmit it. Importantly, this synthesis provides essential information on what species need to be targeted in mosquito control programs. 

Identifying the key vector and host species that drive the transmission of zoonotic pathogens is notoriously difficult but critical for disease control. We present a nested approach for quantifying the importance of host and vectors that integrates species’ physiological competence with their ecological traits. We apply this framework to a medically important arbovirus, Ross River virus (RRV), in Brisbane, Australia. We find that vertebrate hosts with high physiological competence are not the most important for community transmission; interactions between hosts and vectors largely underpin the importance of host species. For vectors, physiological competence is highly important. Our results identify primary and secondary vectors of RRV and suggest two potential transmission cycles in Brisbane: an enzootic cycle involving birds and an urban cycle involving humans. The framework accounts for uncertainty from each fitted statistical model in estimates of species’ contributions to transmission and has has direct application to other zoonotic pathogens. 

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti -transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.